Metalligence
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Metalligence
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Geopolitical Risk
An evidence-based assessment of how the U.S.–Iran conflict reshaped maritime activity, energy markets, macroeconomic conditions, and downstream industrial costs through July 2026.
Core judgement
The U.S.–Iran conflict beginning on February 28, 2026, produced a multidimensional disruption across maritime transportation, energy markets, and downstream industries. This report examines how these effects evolved through July 24, distinguishing physical shipping disruptions from broader economic and price responses. Observable vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz declined by 95.9% during days 7–29 following the conflict's onset, with subsequent recovery remaining incomplete. Maritime security risks persisted despite political announcements and temporary reopening arrangements. Meanwhile, Singapore's port activity remained resilient, demonstrating that localized shipping disruptions did not translate into synchronized global port contraction. Energy markets experienced substantial but uneven adjustments. Brent crude reached 93.8% above its pre-conflict level before partially retreating, while financial volatility normalized faster than energy prices and long-term interest rates. Downstream effects were similarly differentiated. Fertilizer and vegetable oil prices increased substantially, whereas cereals and aggregate food prices exhibited more moderate changes. The findings emphasize that maritime recovery, market normalization, and industrial cost transmission follow distinct timelines and should not be treated as a single process.
Key findings
1. Severe Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz
Observable daily vessel transits declined by 95.9% during days 7–29 after the conflict began, and average traffic from day 121 onward remained 79.0% below the pre-conflict baseline.
2. Persistent Maritime Security Risks
The research documented 59 IMO-confirmed maritime incidents between March and July 2026, demonstrating that temporary political arrangements did not establish a sustained return to operational normality.
3. Resilience of Global Shipping Hubs
Singapore's total vessel arrivals exceeded their corresponding historical monthly medians by 8.6%, 5.4%, and 6.4% from March through May 2026, indicating that localized shipping disruptions did not produce equivalent contractions at this major port.
4. Multistage Energy Market Adjustment
Brent crude increased from $71.32 per barrel before the conflict to $138.21 on April 7, 2026, before declining and subsequently recovering to $86.99 on July 20, remaining 22.0% above its pre-conflict level.
5. Divergence Between Financial Risk and Energy Conditions
By July 24, the VIX had fallen 6.4% below its pre-conflict level, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained 72 basis points higher, illustrating the divergence between declining acute risk aversion and persistent macroeconomic pressures.
Full research
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Client sign in →6. Selective Downstream Industrial Transmission
Between February and June 2026, U.S. nitrogen fertilizer producer prices increased 23.5% and the FAO vegetable oil price index rose 10.2%, compared with increases of 1.4% for cereals and 3.8% for the aggregate food price index.